Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Report: Hawaiian Airlines dumps A330-800 NEO for 787-9

According to Scott Hamilton at Leeham News, Boeing has convinced Hawaiian Airlines to dump the order for 6 A330-800 NEO in favor of the 787-9.  An announcement may come as early as this week. 

If true, it's blow (though probably not a serious one) to the A330NEO.  The -800 model though only has the one order from Hawaiian which was switched earlier from the A350-800 which Airbus had cancelled due to lack of interest.  It seems the same fate may have befallen the A330-800.  At the end of the day I think that Airbus probably will shelve the A330-800 for lack of interest.  As you recall Airbus' original response to the 787 was to re-engine the A330.  That didn't fly with customers and after several iterations, was forced to for with the A350.  While this model has done well, Airbus had decided to come back to the original re-engine idea which resulted in the A330NEO.  The A330NEO really hasn't sold well with only a total of 220 sales (6 -800 and 214 -900).

Sunday, February 18, 2018

787 February 2018 Mid Month Report

Boeing is well on track to deliver around 10 to 12 787s in February.  Thsu far, Boeing has delivered 8 787-9s to customers including the last 2 787-9s on United Airlines' order of 25.  United now has the 14 787-10 left on their large 787 order left to be delivered. Air Canada also had its 25th 787-9 delivered (out of an order for 29) during the last couple of weeks.  Thus far Boeing has delivered 16 787s (all -9s).

One thing to note is that Xiamen Airlines apparently did not take delivery of its 5th 787-9 and is still at Charleston which engine covers still on but parked at the delivery center.  Their 6th and last 787-9 is still on Charleston flightline awaiting its first flight.  Hopefully I'll have a little more information as to the delivery delay and when it should finally deliver.

Boeing is also readying the first 787-10 for delivery around March 14th.  ZC004 (LN 656, 9V-SCA) has taken several flight tests, presumably to test not just the aircraft but the customer furnished equipment that Singapore has wanted installed in their -10s.  I expect that there will be a few filight tests since this is the 1st 787-10 being delivered and this is Singapore's first  direct 787 delivery (not counting Scoot, of course).

Production is moving at the typical pace with 7 Dreamliners rolled out and another 6 which have started final assembly.  Over the next few months we should see more 787-10s rolling out of Charleston all destined for Singapore followed by a short pause and then the GE powered -10s for Etihad and United should start to follow.  Speaking of the production of the -10, Boeing got approval from the FAA on the -10 production at Charleston in the form of the 787-10 production certificate.   This means that the production system and the support for production has met all FAA requirements.  All three 787-10 flight test aircraft are now at Charleston and I'm presuming that they will now undergo change incorporation and re-work at Charleston over the next 6 to 9 months in preparation for delivery to Singapore and United.

In the meantime, continue to browse through the 787 production spreadsheets for more information:

787 Spreadsheets

Friday, February 9, 2018

First production standard 787-10 to take flight today.

Second 787-10 to be delivered to Singapore Airlines - Boeing Photo
The first 787-10 that Boeing will deliver to a customer will make its first flight today from Boeing's Charleston facility.  This aircraft ZC004 (L/N 656, 9V-SCA) should make it's B-1 flight around 10:30 am local time flying to Myrtle Beach International Airport and then back down to Charleston.  The flight should last about 2 hours.

Boeing is building in more time between first flight and delivery as it is is the first 787-10 being delivered and the first 787 being delivered to Singapore Airlines thus the added time is needed between first flight and delivery.  The customer acceptance flight (C-1) should take place around March 2nd, and delivery should occur on March 14th, 2018.

Singapore Airline is expected to take delivery of 8 787-10s this year including two aircraft that were part of the 787-10 flight test program.  All together there were three test flight airplanes and all three are now located back in Charleston where they will now undergo change incorporation and re-work to get them to FAA certification standards and to remove flight test equipment and install the passenger cabin.

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Boeing delivers 9 787s in first month of 2018; deferred production costs declined by $591mm in 4th quarter.


Number
Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett123
To be assembled in Charleston94
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage1
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Pre-Flight Prep10
Production Testing3
Non Customer Flight Tests3
Ready for Delivery3
Donation3
Delivered645
TOTAL902

Boeing started 2018 with the delivery of 9 787-9s and the certification of the next 787 model to be delivered to customers, the 787-10.  I was expecting Boeing to deliver 11 787s this months but it appears that the delivery of a couple of Dreamliners has been pushed to February.  Boeing has now delivered 645 787s since program deliveries began in September 2011.  

Yet all in all this was not a bad month as they also rolled out 10 more 787s including another -10, the first one that will be delivered to Singapore within 2 month (Boeing confirmed the March delivery during their 4th quarter earnings conference call).  You can expect a few more 787-10s to be coming out of Charleston over the next few months.  In the meantime ZC036 (LN 548, N548ZC) the 787-10/GEnX-1B powered test aircraft continues with flights to certify the GE powered version of the -10. Etihad Airways should get the first GE powered 787-10 around October but it should be certified long before that month.



As mentioned earlier, Boeing released its 4th quarter 2017 earning which blew the lid off the market for sometime this morning.  Boeing continues to be pleased by the continued reduction in the deferred production costs of the 787 program.  During the previous quarter the production costs came down by $591 million to about $25.4 billion.  Boeing is attributing the continued reduction in the cost savings measures they've instilled in the 787 program as well as cost reduction initiatives instituted by the various suppliers.  The introduction of the -10 into regular production should help with unit profitability but it will be a few years before the profit margins on the -10 have an impact financially simply because there aren't a whole lot of -10s being produced this year (and probably next year. compared to the -9 which will be the majority of 787s produced in the coming years.  \
Certainly when Boeing goes to 14 airplanes next year and more of that mix is the -9 and -10, I expect that the rate of reduction of the 787 deferred production costs should increase.

Finally, I expect 10 Dreamliners to be delivered in February including the final 2 787-9s for United Airlines.  They still have 14 787-10s on order of which I expect them to receive 4 this year.

Again, you can keep track of the status of the Dreamliner production and deliveries by checking out my 787 spreadsheets.